Those polls and the "misery index"

I've been wondering about the polls recently published in the local newspapers predicting a landslide victory for the Australian Labor Party under Kevin Rudd and equally about much of the commentary written about them.

On the left side of politics, much is made of the lack of trust in the government, while the right-wing commentariat are saying that people will come around to the government when they realise the economy is so great.

I think both positions (or maybe spins) are wrong. And in a perverse way, the government's spin about being good economic managers, is probably working to the ALP's advantage.

Someone once looked back at all the changes in government in Australia in the last 70 years and said there was a common element in all of them. Sometimes referred to as the "misery index." Governments lost elections only when two or more of the following three factors were on the increase:

• a rise in interest rates;
• a rise in the inflation rate; and
• a rise in unemployment.

But surely, I hear you say, they're all low here in Oz. And that's true, if you just look at bare numbers, but once you start thinking about what they really mean to the average person, I'm not so sure the government should be too confident of a recovery in the polls.

Yes, interest rates are low, but the impact on the average person is on their home loan repayments - the numbers mean nothing to them - all they know is that they are pouring huge sums into their mortgage repayments because they paid so much for their homes in the first place.

Inflation rate? The official rate is low, but the cost of the bare essentials - fruit and veg, meat etc is spiraling way ahead of the official inflation rate. Inflation rate is calculated on a range of costs - some of which have declined markedly - LCD TVs are pretty cheap now - but the bare essentials? Nope, they're going up quite rapidly at the moment. And if you're struggling to pay the mortgage, then luxuries are just that - and you notice those food bills rising.

Unemployment rate ? Well, what this really measures is the average person's sense of job security. Yes, we have low unemployment, but the government has well and truly muddied the water with their "Work Choices" legislation which, rightly or wrongly, is perceived as increasing job insecurity.

So on the misery index, I don't think the Government is faring too well - which might just explain why they look like they're going to get trounced. And the Treasurer saying "you've never had it so good" - that might have worked for Harold McMillan in the UK in the late 1950's, but I have a feeling it's rubbing folks in the here and now up the wrong way. Similarly when the average person hears that the Australian economy is fantastic, it's natural for them to ask themselves how it 'feels' to them or their kids - and if they aren't sharing in that supposed prosperity they're hardly going to be supportive.

Oh, and the other interesting thing about the polls is the very low "undecided" response. Normally this far out from an election you can get upwards of 20% of respondents saying they haven't made up their minds yet.

Undecideds are sitting at 10% at the last poll, and has been at that level since May.

Looks like they've made up their minds.